Simulation modeling of cash flow according to the accounting (financial) statements of the organization

   The article is aimed at updating approaches to predictive analysis of an organization’s financial performance in a dynamically changing business environment and demonstrates the potential for the applied use of econometric models of scenario forecasting under conditions of uncertainty. The methodological basis of scientific research is formed by approaches to building a simulation model of free cash flow (FCFF) of an organization using indicators from econometric analysis of data sets. The work mathematically formalizes the relationship between the resulting indicator and the model variables that determine changes in the object of analysis. The model variables are the components of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), income tax (Taxes), net capital expenditures (CapEx), depreciation costs of tangible and intangible assets (D&A), as well as changes in the company’s working capital (∆NWC). The limits of change in factor characteristics are based on a statistical assessment of their retrospective values during 2017–2023. In the process of simulation modeling, variation of a set of variables occurs using a uniform distribution law of a random variable. The formation of an array of simulation experiments serves as the basis for calculating indicators of descriptive statistics that characterize the empirical distribution of the object of simulation analysis, and allows us to give it a detailed qualitative description from the standpoint of interpreting the results of a parametric assessment of the risks of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise. A significant advantage of the considered approach to the use of simulation modeling is the disclosure of source data for multi-scenario forecasting as part of the organization’s public financial information, which determines the possibility of constructing a simulation model by external users of accounting (financial) statements, significantly expanding the range of subjects of economic analysis.

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