A new approach to risk assessment of securities portfolios
Abstract
In finance and portfolio management, portfolio volatility is often used as an indicator of risk – it is the standard deviation of return, which reflects the degree of uncertainty of investment results. The volatility and, accordingly, the portfolio standard deviation indicator according to the author of this article is influenced not only by the composition, but also by the volume of investments depending on the market situation. This statement is the key idea of the paper, which leads to conclusions that challenge the currently accepted portfolio theory in terms of measuring risks in investments through the volatility of securities returns. In reality, volatility only shows the degree of variability in the price of an asset, while more significant for the investor is the risk of capital loss due to external conditions, such as bankruptcy of the company, reduction in its market share, internal corporate conflicts, ineffective management and so on. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to build an investment portfolio model that would prove the non-identity of the concepts of risk and volatility in investments, and also raises the question of finding new ways to measure risk in portfolio investments.
About the Authors
B. T. YakupovRussian Federation
Graduate Student
L. N. Safiullin
Russian Federation
Doctor in Economics, Professor
References
1. Borodavko L.S. Volatility as the main measure of investor’s risk // Questions of Sustainable Development of Society. 2021. No. 2. P. 25–33.
2. Granaturov V.M. Economic risk: the essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. M.: Business and Service, 2010. 208 p.
3. Klyuchnikov O.I. Problems of Estimating Uncertainty of the Stock Market and Volatility Indices // Scientific Notes of the International Banking Institute. 2020. No. 1 (31). P. 20–39.
4. Limitovsky M.A., Minasyan V.B. Risk Analysis of an Investment Project // Financial Risk Management. 2011. No. 2. P. 132–150.
5. Negomedzyanov Y.A., Negomedzyanov G.Y. Risk Assessment by Real Volatility // Finance and Credit. 2015. No. 24 (648). P. 22–26.
6. Prusova V.I., Beznovskaya V.V., Vasiliev I.R. The Use of Stock Indices to Assess the State of the World Economy // Economics and Business: Theory and Practice. 2019. No. 6-2. P. 95–100.
7. Bodrov R.G., Nikonova T.V., Yusupova L.M., Kodolova I.A., Pashkeev A.V. Analysis of factors affecting modern stock markets // Journal of Social Sciences Research. 2018. No. 5. P. 250–255.
8. Financial planning: Realizing the value of budgeting and forecasting. Boston: CFO Publishing LLC, 2011. 44 p.
9. Deviation risk measure // Finansistem. URL: https://finansistem.com/deviation-risk-measure/ (date of access: 29.03.2023).
10. Koczar J., Selivanova K.M., Akhmetshina A.R., Vagizova V.I. Modeling investment decisions in the system of sustainable financing // Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. 2019. Vol. 854. P. 16–23.
11. Safiullin L.N., Bodrov R.G., Jusupova L.M. Mechanism of assessing effectiveness of investments into securities of leading Russian oil companies // International Business Management. 2015. Vol. 9, Is. 7. P. 1756– 1760.
12. Yakupov B.T. A new approach to risk identification in portfolio investment // International Research Journal. 2022. No. 5-4 (119). P. 168–172.
13. Zakirova D.F., Zakirova E.F., Safiullin L.N., Gatin B.I. Relationship between the operational risk, operations and information management in Russian banking sector // International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 2019. No. 8 (5). P. 897–903.
Review
For citations:
Yakupov B.T., Safiullin L.N. A new approach to risk assessment of securities portfolios. Kazan economic vestnik. 2023;1(2):71-82. (In Russ.)